# Long Differences (Alternative to Cointegration)

| Model | N | Countries | R² | ΔZ₁ coef | ΔZ₁ SE | ΔZ₁ p | Sig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E: Δ10 differences | 2,232 | 99 | 0.068 | -0.5334 | 0.4718 | 0.2584 |  |
| E: Δ5 differences | 2,727 | 99 | 0.025 | -0.4604 | 0.5887 | 0.4342 |  |

## Full Coefficients

| Model | Variable | Coef | SE | p-value | Sig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E: Δ10 differences | Δ10_Z_1 | -0.5334 | 0.4718 | 0.2584 |  |
| E: Δ10 differences | Δ10_Z_2 | 0.0923 | 0.0682 | 0.1759 |  |
| E: Δ10 differences | Δ10_Z_3 | -0.0034 | 0.0028 | 0.2116 |  |
| E: Δ10 differences | Δ10_log_gdp_pc | 0.1526 | 0.0339 | 0.0000 | *** |
| E: Δ10 differences | Δ10_rgdp_growth | -0.0009 | 0.0003 | 0.0035 | *** |
| E: Δ10 differences | Δ10_kaopen | -0.0015 | 0.0052 | 0.7805 |  |
| E: Δ10 differences | Δ10_nfa_gdp_lag | 0.0012 | 0.0024 | 0.6077 |  |
| E: Δ5 differences | Δ5_Z_1 | -0.4604 | 0.5887 | 0.4342 |  |
| E: Δ5 differences | Δ5_Z_2 | 0.1055 | 0.0852 | 0.2159 |  |
| E: Δ5 differences | Δ5_Z_3 | -0.0044 | 0.0035 | 0.2078 |  |
| E: Δ5 differences | Δ5_log_gdp_pc | 0.1186 | 0.0368 | 0.0013 | *** |
| E: Δ5 differences | Δ5_rgdp_growth | -0.0008 | 0.0003 | 0.0120 | ** |
| E: Δ5 differences | Δ5_kaopen | -0.0032 | 0.0050 | 0.5217 |  |
| E: Δ5 differences | Δ5_nfa_gdp_lag | 0.0021 | 0.0026 | 0.4160 |  |

*Long differences: Δₕ y = y_t - y_{t-h}. Tests whether demographic changes over h years predict REER changes over h years.*